Retention Curve Estimator
Tell us your video length, hook strength, pacing score, and pattern-interrupt density. We render a predicted retention curve and identify the seconds where the algorithm is most likely to deprioritize your video.
What's different here: Most retention estimators draw a curve from your analytics. We draw one from your script inputs — useful when you don't have analytics yet.
Retention curve will appear here.
What this solves
Without analytics, you can't tell whether your first 8 seconds are strong enough. This estimator produces a publishable baseline so you can compare after launch.
How to interpret
The curve has a typical shape: steep initial drop (3–8s), mid-content dip (40–55% for short-form), late recovery if there's a payoff. The yellow zones are critical-loss seconds.
FAQ
Why does the curve dip in the middle?
Almost every short-form video shows a mid-content dip. It's natural — the novelty has worn off but the payoff hasn't arrived. Pattern interrupts flatten it.
What counts as "good" retention?
For Shorts: 70%+ view-through. For TikTok: 50%+ completion. For Reels: 60%+ retention past 3 seconds.